Research Publications (Systems Science)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://ir-dev.dut.ac.za/handle/10321/842

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Indigenous strategies and empirical models for adaptability of the maize-bean intercropping system to climate change
(UZ Foundatoin, 2016-12) Mapanda, S.; Chitja, J. M.; Duffy, Kevin Jan
This review article discusses on different ways of indigenous strategies and empirical models as an adaptation to climate change by smallholder farmers in Africa. Indigenous adaptation strategies are methods that enable individuals or communities to adjust to the impacts of climate change in local areas. Some of the strategies practiced are: zero tillage, mulching, soil management techniques, organic agriculture and fallow system of cultiva-tion, intercropping with legumes, early planting and use of tolerant varieties to drought, water conservation and crop diversification. Scientists developed many empirical models that are used to project the impact of climate change to agriculture. Some of the empirical models include: CERES-Maize Crop Model, Global Circulation Models (GCM) and histori-cal data records. There is also use of empirical evidence such as indigenous land unit framework, indigenous early warning systems, use of rainmakers, movement of birds, ants and crying of dogs by the indigenous smallholder farmers in Africa. Intercropping system is the best practice used as a strategy to climate change adaptability, and one of the most suitable intercropping systems is that of maize and bean. However, the current research findings revealed that there is a lack of consideration of indigenous knowledge that could enhance livelihoods that depend on natural resources directly affected by climate change.
Model highlights likely long-term inﬂuences of mesobrowsers versus those of elephants on woodland dynamics
(Wiley Online Library, 2014-06) O'Kane, Christopher A. J.; Duffy, Kevin Jan; Page, Bruce R.; Macdonald, David W.
The potential long-term inﬂuences of mesobrowsers versus those of savannah elephants on woodland dynamics have not been explored. This may be a critical omission especially in southern African savannahs, where efforts to preserve existing woodlands are typically directed at elephant man-agement. We describe a simple browse–browser model, parameterized from an extensive review of the literature and our own data, including quantitative assessment of impala impact, from the study site, iMfolozi Park, South Africa. As there is a paucity of species-speciﬁc demographic data on savannah woody species, we modelled, in a novel approach, functional groups of plant species typical of Acacia wood-lands. Outputs suggest that over the long term (100 years), low-to-moderate densities of impala will have a similar impact on woodland structure, in terms of density of adult trees, as low-to-moderate densities of elephant. Further, the outputs highlight the apparently strong synergistic effect impala and elephant impacts combined have on woodland dynamics, suggesting that reduction or removal of either impala or elephant will radically reduce long-term destruc-tion of savannah woodlands. Recorded changes in adult tree numbers in iMfolozi broadly supported the model’s outputs.
Stable isotope turnover and variability in tail hairs of captive and free-ranging African elephants (Loxodonta africana) reveal dietary niche differences within populations
(NRC Research Press, 2013) Codron, Jacqueline; Kirkman, Kevin; Duffy, Kevin Jan; Sponheimer, Matt; Lee-Thorp, Julia A.; Ganswindt, Andre; Clauss, Marcus; Codron, Daryl
Many herbivore species expand their dietary niche breadths by switching from browse-rich diets in dry seasons to grass-rich diets in rainy seasons, in response to phenological changes in plant availability and quality. We analyzed stable isotope series along tail hairs of captive and free-ranging African elephant (Loxodonta africana (Blumenbach, 1797)) to compare patterns of seasonal dietary variability across individuals. Results from elephants translocated from the wild into captivity, where their diets are semicontrolled, revealed tail hair growth rates of 0.34 mm/day, on average, and relatively rapid isotope turnover through the transition from wild into captivity. Sampling hairs at 10 mm increments thus archives dietary chronologies at a resolution suitable for tracking diet switches at seasonal, and even subseasonal, scales. Hairs of free-ranging elephants showed extensive carbon isotopic variability within individuals, consistent with seasonal switches between C3-browsing and C4-grazing. Similarly extensive, but asynchronous, shifts in nitrogen isotope ratios were also observed, suggesting an influence of factors other than seasonality. Across individuals, switching patterns differed across habitats, and across age classes, with older, larger animals including increasing amounts of C3 browse into their diets. These results demonstrate how stable isotope approaches characterize complex patterns of resource use in wildlife populations.
Using Maximum Entropy modeling to predict the potential distributions of large trees for conservation planning
(Ecological Society of America, 2012-06) Smith, Alain; Page, Bruce R.; Duffy, Kevin Jan; Slotow, Rob
Large trees, as keystone structures, are functionally important in savanna ecosystems, and low recruitment and slow growth makes their conservation important. Understanding factors influencing their distribution is essential for mitigation of excessive mortality, for example from management fires or large herbivores. We recorded the locations of large trees in Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park (HiP) using GPS to record trees along 43 km of 10 m-wide transects. Maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) uses niche modeling to predict the distribution of a species from the probability of finding it within raster squares, based on environmental variables and recorded locations. MaxEnt is typically applied at a regional spatial scale, and here we assessed its usefulness when predicting the distribution of species at a small (local) scale. HiP has variable topography, heterogeneous soils, and a strong rainfall gradient, resulting in a wide variety of habitat types. We used locations of 179 Acacia nigrescens and 106 Sclerocarya birrea (large trees ≥ 5m), and raster environmental layers for: aspect, elevation, geology, annual rainfall, slope, soil and vegetation. A. nigrescens was largely restricted to the Imfolozi section, while S. birrea had a wider distribution across the reserve. Understanding the interaction of environmental variables dictating tree distribution may facilitate habitat restoration, and will assist planning decisions for persistence of large trees within reserves, including options to reduce fire frequency or herbivore impacts. Though the AUC (Area Under the Curve) values used to test model predictions were high for both species, the ground truthing test data showed that distribution for A. nigrescens was more accurate than that for S. birrea, highlighting the need for independent test data to assess model accuracy. We emphasize that MaxEnt can be used at finer spatial scales than those typically used for species occurrence, but models must be tested using spatially independent test data.