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Research Publications (Systems Science)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://ir-dev.dut.ac.za/handle/10321/842

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Author: search.filters.author.Page, Bruce R.End date: 2020

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    Model highlights likely long-term influences of mesobrowsers versus those of elephants on woodland dynamics
    (Wiley Online Library, 2014-06) O'Kane, Christopher A. J.; Duffy, Kevin Jan; Page, Bruce R.; Macdonald, David W.
    The potential long-term influences of mesobrowsers versus those of savannah elephants on woodland dynamics have not been explored. This may be a critical omission especially in southern African savannahs, where efforts to preserve existing woodlands are typically directed at elephant man-agement. We describe a simple browse–browser model, parameterized from an extensive review of the literature and our own data, including quantitative assessment of impala impact, from the study site, iMfolozi Park, South Africa. As there is a paucity of species-specific demographic data on savannah woody species, we modelled, in a novel approach, functional groups of plant species typical of Acacia wood-lands. Outputs suggest that over the long term (100 years), low-to-moderate densities of impala will have a similar impact on woodland structure, in terms of density of adult trees, as low-to-moderate densities of elephant. Further, the outputs highlight the apparently strong synergistic effect impala and elephant impacts combined have on woodland dynamics, suggesting that reduction or removal of either impala or elephant will radically reduce long-term destruc-tion of savannah woodlands. Recorded changes in adult tree numbers in iMfolozi broadly supported the model’s outputs.
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    Heavy impact on seedlings by the impala suggests a central role in woodland dynamics
    (Cambridge University Press, 2012-04-12) O'Kane, Christopher A. J.; Duffy, Kevin Jan; Page, Bruce R.; Macdonald, David W.
    Research has increasingly established that mesoherbivores influence the regeneration of woody plants. However the relationship between mesoherbivore density and degree of impact, and the spatial component of this impact, has not been well established. Using a novel sampling design, we assessed in iMfolozi Park, South Africa, the impact of impala (Aepyceros melampus) across the full complement of woody species within the home range, evaluating its spatial component and relationship to impala density. We used four GPS collars, in separate breeding herds, and a GIS to detect zones of different density of impala in the landscape, thus defining a fine-grain browsing gradient. We assessed impact on woody recruits (≤ 0.5 m height) across this gradient by means of 1600 random 1 × 1-m quadrats. Densities of woody seedlings, and mean percentage of remaining canopy, were significantly less in areas of high impala density versus low-density areas. There was a significant correlation between increasing impala density and decreasing density of favoured woody recruits. We propose a hypothesis of impala-induced patch dynamics. It seems likely that the ubiquitous impala may create and sustain a shifting mosaic of patches, and thus function as a key determinant of landscape heterogeneity.
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    Using Maximum Entropy modeling to predict the potential distributions of large trees for conservation planning
    (Ecological Society of America, 2012-06) Smith, Alain; Page, Bruce R.; Duffy, Kevin Jan; Slotow, Rob
    Large trees, as keystone structures, are functionally important in savanna ecosystems, and low recruitment and slow growth makes their conservation important. Understanding factors influencing their distribution is essential for mitigation of excessive mortality, for example from management fires or large herbivores. We recorded the locations of large trees in Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park (HiP) using GPS to record trees along 43 km of 10 m-wide transects. Maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) uses niche modeling to predict the distribution of a species from the probability of finding it within raster squares, based on environmental variables and recorded locations. MaxEnt is typically applied at a regional spatial scale, and here we assessed its usefulness when predicting the distribution of species at a small (local) scale. HiP has variable topography, heterogeneous soils, and a strong rainfall gradient, resulting in a wide variety of habitat types. We used locations of 179 Acacia nigrescens and 106 Sclerocarya birrea (large trees ≥ 5m), and raster environmental layers for: aspect, elevation, geology, annual rainfall, slope, soil and vegetation. A. nigrescens was largely restricted to the Imfolozi section, while S. birrea had a wider distribution across the reserve. Understanding the interaction of environmental variables dictating tree distribution may facilitate habitat restoration, and will assist planning decisions for persistence of large trees within reserves, including options to reduce fire frequency or herbivore impacts. Though the AUC (Area Under the Curve) values used to test model predictions were high for both species, the ground truthing test data showed that distribution for A. nigrescens was more accurate than that for S. birrea, highlighting the need for independent test data to assess model accuracy. We emphasize that MaxEnt can be used at finer spatial scales than those typically used for species occurrence, but models must be tested using spatially independent test data.